Abstract— This study aimed to develop an “improved simplified two-zone model authentication technology” in order to simulate the time to untenable conditions in compartments less than 200 m2 in area, which include smoke layer temperature, visibility, carbon monoxide concentration, fractional lethal dose, and radiation heat flux. Based on reliability-based design and structure function, this study focuses on constructing “the stochastic model of egress safety/failure in a compartment fire”. Moreover, stochastic parameters and probability distributions were assumed. Random numbers of parameters were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. After several simulations, the failure probability of occupants egress due to one or more than one of the untenable conditions was obtained. After constructing the model, 200 m2 occupants in a ALA PUB disco ballroom located in Taichung, Taiwan were taken as an example. The simulation of polyurethane furniture fire was executed 100 times. The results showed that installation of automatic fire alarm equipments and emergency broadcasting equipments can substantially reduce the untenable conditions and failure probability of occupants egress. Some ideas for fire officers and future studies for fire researchers were also recommended.
Keywords— Fractional lethal dose, Radiation heat flux, Reliability-based design, Stochastic model, Structure function, Untenable conditions.
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