Probabilistic Completion Time in Project Scheduling

AbstractThere are two common used methods to find the minimum completion time for a project scheduling. These methods are Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT). In CPM, a network diagram, which is Activity on Node (AON), is drawn and the slack time for every activity is calculated such that the project’s critical path could be found. It is important that the critical path can suggest the shortest possible completion time. On the other hand, PERT concerns on uncertainty and risk in a project. It has three time estimates, which are optimistic, pessimistic and most likely, and all the time estimates mentioned follows the beta distribution. Besides, the probability in completing the project within certain duration is calculated by using the standard normal distribution. As the risk cannot be avoided in a project, it is important to keep track on any changes and to minimize the completion time for a project. Both of the methods are used to calculate the shortest possible completion time, slack and critical path. The difference between these methods is CPM has only one determined time estimate, while PERT has three time estimates, which shows the uncertainty in the duration of an activity in a project. For illustration, the data used for the construction of a three-room house was studied. The results show that the minimum completion time for the project is 44 days with a success probability 0.91. In conclusion, CPM and PERT are practical tool in the project scheduling.

KeywordsActivity on Node, Critical Path Method, Program Evaluation Review Technique, Probabilistic Completion Time, Slack Time.

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Probabilistic Completion Time in Project Scheduling

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