Abstract— Agriculture (the agricultural exports flagship from southern Brazil) is highly dependent on temporal rainfall distribution. However, the technology used in the field has been altering this relationship. Such technology, in addition to minimizing the effects of climate variability, has increased the annual soybean yield observed in the trend analysis, which was positive in 17 of the municipalities studied. The aim of this study was to analyze the rainfall variability and soybean production in one of the areas of greatest soybean production in southern Brazil by applying the quartile, percentile, Pettitt (homogeneity – break results) and Mann-Kendall (trend) tests. The results indicate a significant relationship between annual rainfall variability (1999-2000; 2009-2010) and soybean yield (kg/ha), particularly during the growing season of 2009-2010 when the yield variation between municipalities was low. It was concluded that the statistically significant correlations indicate that the soy dependence ranges from 22% to 50% in certain municipalities.
Keywords— Rainfall variability, agriculture, soybean, agricultural climatology, southern Brazil.
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